A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
